TwoTierKeir

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +11.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?+$1,021No · avg 90.9¢ → 97.7¢ · $14.8k Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$1,208No · avg 84¢ → 95¢ · $10.3k Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?+$663Yes · avg 32¢ → 97.9¢ · $979 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$382Yes · avg 24¢ → 17¢ · $838 US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?+$35No · avg 88¢ → 97¢ · $383 Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?−$34No · avg 66¢ → 60¢ · $363

Price-adjusted edge

+11.7 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$159.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$58.1k

Last 30 days +$162 · $1.01M volume · 1,107 trades · since Apr 03, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$5,968

Open P&L · 26 positions

−$52.0k

Closed-position win rate

85%

65 closed

Wallet age · markets

204d

85 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+11.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$17.2k	100%	174d ago	excluded
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$26.4k	100%	175d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$17.1k	88%	192d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$13.3k	100%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$12.5k	0%	198d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.4¢	$40.6k 2.4× usual	2%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$32.4k	90%	199d ago	excluded

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$17.2k

LOW TwoTierKeir · 174d ago

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$26.4k

LOW TwoTierKeir · 175d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?called

BUY No @ 88¢$17.1k

LOW TwoTierKeir · 192d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$13.3k

LOW TwoTierKeir · 198d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$12.5k

LOW TwoTierKeir · 198d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98.4¢$40.6k

LOW TwoTierKeir · 199d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 90¢$32.4k

LOW TwoTierKeir · 199d ago

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