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What this means. A wallet put $27.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$27.2k
BUY No @ 86¢ · 31,630 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteOther
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took No (buy) for $27.2k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $27.2k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−610American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 85.9%
- Size
- $27.2k
- Placed
- Jan 29, 19:28 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0xf0e35533…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +14 ptsNo price · entry 86¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $98.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |