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What this means. A wallet put $10.6k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 45% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.6k
SELL Yes @ 55¢ · 19,281 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took Yes (sell) for $10.6k at an average 55¢. At that price the market implied a 45% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.6k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 55¢
- Implied odds
- 45.0%
- Size
- $10.6k
- Placed
- Jan 14, 21:04 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0xa68ada55…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $98.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |