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What this means. A wallet put $35.2k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$35.2k
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ · 35,261 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took Yes (sell) for $35.2k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $35.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $35.2k
- Placed
- May 09, 12:50 EDT
- Market close
- May 08, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x3e20415e…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $138.2k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $106.5k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |