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duderr

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -45.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Project Helix release by May 31, 2027?−$94No · avg 98.9¢ → 58¢ · $136
Price-adjusted edge
-45.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$451.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$195.5k
Last 30 days −$2,839 · $34.19M volume · 35,728 trades · since Jan 01, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.89M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$1.98M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
661d
2777 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other200.9-45.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $16.2k99% 158d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $140.7k
8.3× usual
100% 167d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $10.6k100% 167d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 95¢ $17.7k5% 167d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $26.7k100% 168d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.1k0% 177d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $14.9k0% 185d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $15.0k100% 187d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $48.0k
2.8× usual
100% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $11.1k85% 200d agomissed
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $10.7k0% 206d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED BUY Yes @ 97¢ $44.1k
2.6× usual
97% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL Yes @ 96.7¢ $35.8k
2.1× usual
3% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 96.2¢ $17.8k4% 237d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% 262d agoexcluded

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