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What this means. A wallet put $32.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 9% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$32.2k
SELL No @ 91¢ · 35,402 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took No (sell) for $32.2k at an average 91¢. At that price the market implied a 9% chance for that side. Pending: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $32.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 91¢
- Implied odds
- 9.0%
- Size
- $32.2k
- Placed
- Oct 23, 20:12 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 03, 23:59 EST
- Result
- not settled yet
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x158dd4fe…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Price since this bet
Since entry -0.5 ptsNo price · entry 91¢ · now 91.5¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | HIGH SELL No @ 92¢ | $34.7k | pending |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | HIGH SELL No @ 92¢ | $64.4k | pending |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $22.6k | pending |
Same event on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same event, which can be on a different answer than this bet. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| NO Republican Party | $10.6k | 91.7¢ | 1d ago |
| YES Democratic Party | $14.2k | 91.9¢ | 2d ago |