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ndb1

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 16 of 25. The prices it paid implied about 12.8 wins, so it did +12.9 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+12.9 pts over 25 bets). Without its single best bet: +10.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+12.9 pts
Called / graded
16/25
Expected from price
12.8
Flagged volume
$11.87M
Sample size25 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.8 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$218k
25 graded bets in the order they resolved · 16 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$96k$0$484k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? at 29¢) and the edge is +10.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=3
20–40¢
33% vs 29% · n=3
40–60¢
57% vs 46% · n=7
60–80¢
90% vs 67% · n=10
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3.00M
Last 30 days −$168.2k · $129.02M volume · 69,965 trades · since Mar 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$15.18M
Open P&L · 500 positions
+$769.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
212d
2961 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports191410.1+20.3 pts
Other622.6-10.4 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImpliedWhenResult
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseLOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $12.9k99% 1h agopending
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseLOW SELL Yes @ 0.7¢ $13.9k99% 3h agopending
Rockets vs. SpursMED BUY Spurs @ 64¢ $34.0k64% 4h agoexcluded
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseHIGH SELL No @ 92¢ $48.1k8% 11h agopending
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?HIGH SELL Yes @ 92¢ $109.5k
2.2× usual
8% 11h agopending
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?HIGH SELL No @ 92¢ $34.7k8% 11h agopending
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseMED BUY Yes @ 67¢ $49.8k67% 19h agopending
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseMED BUY Yes @ 67¢ $86.7k67% 1d agopending
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?HIGH SELL No @ 92¢ $64.4k8% 2d agopending
Falcons vs. SaintsHIGH BUY Falcons @ 66¢ $119.1k
2.4× usual
66% 18d agoexcluded
Lions vs. PanthersMED BUY Lions @ 61¢ $74.6k61% 19d agoexcluded
Broncos vs. 49ersHIGH BUY 49ers @ 62¢ $137.1k
2.8× usual
62% 19d agoexcluded
Patriots vs. BillsMED BUY Bills @ 74¢ $42.7k74% 19d agoexcluded
Vikings vs. BuccaneersHIGH SELL Vikings @ 66¢ $43.2k34% 26d agoexcluded
Vikings vs. BuccaneersHIGH BUY Vikings @ 55¢ $159.8k
3.2× usual
55% 26d agoexcluded
Commanders vs. CowboysMED BUY Cowboys @ 66¢ $58.2k66% 33d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 WinnerHIGH SELL Team Falcons @ 99.9¢ $536.3k
10.8× usual
0% 57d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 WinnerHIGH BUY Team Falcons @ 75¢ $399.4k
8.0× usual
75% 57d agoexcluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ $95.7k57% 101d agocalled
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceHIGH BUY Spain @ 68¢ $120.6k
2.4× usual
68% 101d agoexcluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ $99.9k
2.0× usual
22% 101d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 82¢ $78.4k18% 108d agomissed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 83¢ $212.8k
4.3× usual
17% 108d agomissed
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢ $24.3k94% 108d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 85¢ $913.3k
18.3× usual
15% 108d agomissed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 83¢ $132.9k
2.7× usual
17% 109d agomissed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 82¢ $52.3k82% 110d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 82¢ $49.8k18% 110d agomissed
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceHIGH BUY England @ 51¢ $551.0k
11.1× usual
51% 110d agoexcluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 84¢ $74.5k16% 111d agomissed
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceMED BUY England @ 53¢ $33.1k53% 112d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $24.9k81% 113d agocalled
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceHIGH BUY Argentina @ 91¢ $232.3k
4.7× usual
91% 114d agocalled
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 97.1¢ $69.7k3% 116d agoexcluded
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 95.8¢ $127.9k
2.6× usual
4% 116d agomissed
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 95.5¢ $15.8k5% 116d agomissed
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 93.8¢ $77.7k6% 116d agomissed
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 95.5¢ $176.1k
3.5× usual
4% 116d agomissed
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 92.9¢ $153.8k
3.1× usual
93% 116d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $11.0k80% 118d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $11.0k81% 118d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 82¢ $11.4k18% 118d agomissed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $13.8k81% 118d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 81¢ $110.1k
2.2× usual
81% 118d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH BUY No @ 82¢ $107.9k
2.2× usual
82% 118d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 85¢ $95.1k15% 119d agomissed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $82.1k85% 119d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $204.6k
4.1× usual
85% 119d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH BUY No @ 85¢ $123.9k
2.5× usual
85% 121d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $34.7k85% 121d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $58.7k85% 122d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH BUY No @ 86¢ $143.4k
2.9× usual
86% 122d agocalled
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ $45.6k66% 123d agoexcluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 87¢ $74.3k13% 123d agomissed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 14¢ $47.7k14% 124d agocalled
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5MED BUY Under @ 61¢ $35.6k61% 125d agocalled
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5MED BUY Under @ 59¢ $57.3k59% 128d agoexcluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH BUY No @ 89¢ $347.4k
7.0× usual
89% 129d agocalled
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $17.3k98% 132d agoexcluded
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 56¢ $27.1k56% 136d agocalled
Spurs vs. KnicksMED SELL Knicks @ 53¢ $45.2k47% 137d agoexcluded
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?MED BUY No @ 79¢ $69.8k79% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ $32.8k42% 141d agocalled
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ $27.0k41% 142d agocalled
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.6¢ $240.3k
4.8× usual
0% 142d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.6¢ $763.4k
15.3× usual
100% 142d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. ThunderMED SELL Thunder @ 40¢ $48.3k60% 146d agoexcluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $88.0k85% 146d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?MED BUY No @ 29¢ $83.2k29% 146d agocalled
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY No @ 46¢ $23.6k46% 146d agomissed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?HIGH BUY No @ 43¢ $188.3k
3.8× usual
43% 147d agomissed
Thunder vs. SpursMED BUY Spurs @ 61¢ $30.2k61% 148d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 62¢ $30.8k62% 151d agocalled
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY No @ 42¢ $22.6k42% 154d agomissed
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $35.2k99% 156d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ $36.7k69% 156d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ $42.9k68% 156d agocalled
Cavaliers vs. KnicksHIGH BUY Knicks @ 58¢ $262.2k
5.3× usual
58% 157d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. ThunderHIGH BUY Thunder @ 68¢ $261.6k
5.3× usual
68% 157d agocalled
Cavaliers vs. KnicksHIGH BUY Knicks @ 69¢ $377.6k
7.6× usual
69% 157d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderHIGH BUY Thunder @ 68¢ $248.5k
5.0× usual
68% 158d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ $36.4k68% 158d agocalled
Spurs vs. ThunderHIGH BUY Thunder @ 69¢ $214.3k
4.3× usual
69% 158d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ $10.3k86% 158d agocalled
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $27.0k100% 163d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $15.5k99% 163d agoexcluded
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $573.5k
11.5× usual
100% 165d agoexcluded
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $22.7k100% 166d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?MED SELL Yes @ 87¢ $10.2k13% 166d agomissed
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?MED SELL Yes @ 73¢ $20.0k27% 167d agomissed
Lakers vs. ThunderLOW BUY Thunder @ 89¢ $17.8k89% 169d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $10.4k99% 169d agoexcluded
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $23.8k99% 169d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $10.1k98% 173d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $65.9k100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $88.5k99% 176d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?MED BUY No @ 59¢ $38.4k59% 177d agoexcluded
Lakers vs. RocketsMED BUY Rockets @ 60¢ $101.2k
2.0× usual
60% 180d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ $14.7k43% 183d agocalled
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 83¢ $42.5k17% 183d agomissed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ $10.3k84% 183d agomissed
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ $14.6k42% 184d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?MED BUY No @ 63¢ $34.9k63% 192d agomissed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $16.3k83% 193d agocalled
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 82¢ $28.8k82% 194d agomissed
Nuggets vs. SpursHIGH SELL Nuggets @ 67¢ $201.0k
4.0× usual
33% 194d agoexcluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $23.1k82% 194d agomissed
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?LOW SELL Yes @ 28¢ $19.3k72% 194d agocalled
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?MED SELL Yes @ 70¢ $35.9k30% 195d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢ $23.4k98% 198d agoexcluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $69.9k53% 198d agoexcluded
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona WildcatsHIGH BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 29¢ $52.6k29% 209d agoexcluded
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona WildcatsMED BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 29¢ $32.4k29% 209d agomissed

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