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What this means. A wallet put $10.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 10% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.0k
BUY Yes @ 10¢ · 100,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Economy
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took Yes (buy) for $10.0k at an average 10¢. At that price the market implied a 10% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 10¢ means
10%chance the market gave
+900American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 10¢
- Implied odds
- 10.0%
- Size
- $10.0k
- Placed
- Jan 07, 09:49 EST
- Market close
- Jan 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x9dc9a5a8…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $26.4k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $49.8k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $40.2k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $40.4k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $40.3k 3.9× usual |
excluded |