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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$121.3k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$148
Last 30 days +$0 · $125.0k volume · 55 trades · since Oct 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$153
Closed-position win rate
82%
28 closed
Wallet age · markets
367d
37 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $40.4k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $40.4k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93.2¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢ | $10.2k | called |
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