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What this means. A wallet put $190.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$190.7k
BUY No @ 86¢ · 221,043 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favorite3 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)10.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took No (buy) for $190.7k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $190.7k+2
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−629American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 86.3%
- Size
- $190.7k
- Placed
- Mar 05, 12:15 EST
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x7210e57d…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $369.4k 9.9× usual |
excluded |