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What this means. A wallet put $13.6k on not No, at a price that gave it a 25% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.6k
SELL No @ 75¢ · 18,187 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took No (sell) for $13.6k at an average 75¢. At that price the market implied a 25% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.6k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 75¢
- Implied odds
- 25.4%
- Size
- $13.6k
- Placed
- Apr 16, 14:22 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x7db5aab5…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -25 ptsNo price · entry 75¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |