CaptainCoinflip

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$248Yes · avg 86¢ → 86¢ · $23.7k Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?+$934Yes · avg 93.5¢ → 98.4¢ · $19.1k Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?+$3,780No · avg 50¢ → 82¢ · $9,780 Will Israel election happen as scheduled?+$21Yes · avg 92.8¢ → 93.2¢ · $5,031 Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?−$3,780Yes · avg 50¢ → 18¢ · $2,220 Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?+$54No · avg 89¢ → 95.5¢ · $758 Iran leadership change by October 31?−$8Yes · avg 1.8¢ → 1.8¢ · $142 Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?−$35Yes · avg 5.8¢ → 4.1¢ · $85

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$145.7k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$91.8k

Last 30 days +$2,114 · $5.52M volume · 10,311 trades · since Jun 19, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$172.9k

Open P&L · 16 positions

+$699

Closed-position win rate

87%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

492d

682 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$25.0k	99%	2d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$15.0k	92%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$48.2k 3.2× usual	100%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 94.2¢	$18.4k	6%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.2¢	$12.2k	94%	199d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$12.1k	98%	206d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢	$14.8k	98%	237d ago	excluded

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$25.0k

LOW CaptainCoinflip · 2d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 92¢$15.0k

LOW CaptainCoinflip · 131d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$48.2k

LOW CaptainCoinflip · 199d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL Yes @ 94.2¢$18.4k

LOW CaptainCoinflip · 199d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 94.2¢$12.2k

LOW CaptainCoinflip · 199d ago

Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded

BUY No @ 97.6¢$12.1k

LOW CaptainCoinflip · 206d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 98¢$14.8k

LOW CaptainCoinflip · 237d ago

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