chungguskhan

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -24.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+$65.6kNo · avg 50¢ → 78¢ · $183.0k Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$3,670Yes · avg 38¢ → 44¢ · $26.5k Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?−$879Yes · avg 24¢ → 3.2¢ · $138 US strike on Mexico by December 31?−$544Yes · avg 26¢ → 3.7¢ · $90 Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?+$20No · avg 7¢ → 95¢ · $22

Price-adjusted edge

-24.4 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.7

Flagged volume

$4.11M

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$691.2k

Last 30 days +$8,067 · $67.55M volume · 24,416 trades · since Nov 17, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$20.7k	100%	199d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$143.1k 5.4× usual	1%	208d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 53¢	$108.5k 4.1× usual	53%	214d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 77¢	$42.6k	23%	215d ago	missed
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢	$71.3k 2.7× usual	1%	215d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢	$21.9k	94%	223d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 78¢	$59.5k 2.2× usual	22%	227d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$227.8k 8.6× usual	100%	234d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 56¢	$61.4k 2.3× usual	56%	236d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY Yes @ 94.9¢	$126.8k 4.8× usual	95%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 95.7¢	$110.7k 4.2× usual	4%	237d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$38.4k	80%	238d ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Thunder @ 90¢	$10.9k	90%	238d ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Thunder	MED SELL Thunder @ 68¢	$26.3k	32%	238d ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Thunder @ 42¢	$17.1k	42%	238d ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Thunder @ 70¢	$20.8k	70%	238d ago	excluded
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$54.9k 2.1× usual	80%	238d ago	missed
Celtics vs. Nuggets	MED BUY Celtics @ 42¢	$31.8k	42%	240d ago	excluded
Celtics vs. Nuggets	LOW SELL Celtics @ 42¢	$10.5k	58%	240d ago	excluded
Warriors vs. Pelicans	LOW SELL Warriors @ 30¢	$24.0k	70%	241d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 78¢	$40.5k	22%	247d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 61¢	$48.3k	61%	247d ago	excluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW SELL No @ 82¢	$23.6k	18%	252d ago	missed
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$31.8k	70%	252d ago	called
Government shutdown on Saturday?	MED SELL No @ 77¢	$36.5k	23%	252d ago	missed
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$16.8k	68%	252d ago	called
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$18.0k	90%	253d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$62.6k 2.4× usual	96%	256d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 85¢	$13.7k	15%	257d ago	called
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	LOW SELL No @ 93.5¢	$12.0k	6%	257d ago	excluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	MED BUY No @ 60¢	$146.9k 5.5× usual	60%	257d ago	excluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢	$92.6k 3.5× usual	1%	258d ago	excluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$92.8k 3.5× usual	99%	258d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 74¢	$11.1k	26%	260d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 72¢	$37.7k	28%	261d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 73¢	$20.9k	27%	261d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$64.8k 2.4× usual	100%	262d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$221.5k 8.4× usual	100%	263d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 89¢	$34.1k	11%	266d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL No @ 38¢	$43.6k	62%	266d ago	called
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$22.8k	0%	267d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 41¢	$15.8k	41%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$28.2k	50%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 57¢	$27.1k	43%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED BUY Yes @ 51¢	$27.2k	51%	267d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 54¢	$39.0k	46%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢	$28.6k	49%	267d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢	$26.5k	60%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢	$20.0k	29%	268d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 76¢	$79.9k 3.0× usual	24%	269d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 79¢	$53.0k	21%	270d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢	$11.0k	21%	270d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$31.2k	50%	271d ago	missed
Rams vs. Seahawks	MED SELL Seahawks @ 77¢	$33.3k	23%	271d ago	excluded
Rams vs. Seahawks	MED BUY Seahawks @ 70¢	$81.1k 3.1× usual	70%	271d ago	excluded
Rams vs. Seahawks	MED SELL Seahawks @ 67¢	$33.5k	33%	271d ago	excluded
Rams vs. Seahawks	LOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢	$28.0k	56%	271d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$23.2k	1%	272d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$10.8k	75%	272d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$13.6k	80%	272d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 74¢	$24.5k	26%	272d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 95¢	$21.6k	5%	273d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 66¢	$85.5k 3.2× usual	66%	273d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93.2¢	$25.7k	93%	273d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 52¢	$13.9k	52%	274d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$11.2k	79%	275d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 61¢	$20.9k	61%	275d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢	$12.2k	11%	281d ago	missed
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 62¢	$11.7k	38%	282d ago	missed
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 60¢	$14.2k	40%	282d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 31¢	$11.6k	31%	282d ago	called
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 44¢	$31.0k	44%	282d ago	called
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 37¢	$12.9k	37%	282d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 51¢	$12.2k	49%	284d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$17.4k	50%	284d ago	called
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 69¢	$19.9k	31%	284d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$16.5k	79%	285d ago	called
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$26.4k	71%	285d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$27.8k	77%	286d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 78¢	$13.1k	22%	286d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$20.8k	77%	286d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 80¢	$103.9k 3.9× usual	20%	286d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$181.8k 6.9× usual	80%	286d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 63¢	$14.6k	63%	287d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 73¢	$10.0k	27%	287d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$15.5k	79%	288d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 70¢	$14.0k	30%	288d ago	called
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$46.4k	98%	288d ago	excluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$35.0k	0%	290d ago	excluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	0%	290d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$61.7k 2.3× usual	79%	291d ago	missed
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$148.2k 5.6× usual	100%	293d ago	excluded
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 46¢	$10.4k	54%	294d ago	missed
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢	$13.4k	40%	300d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 85¢	$17.3k	15%	336d ago	excluded

chungguskhan

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