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What this means. A wallet put $110.7k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$110.7k
SELL Yes @ 95.7¢ · 115,721 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)4.2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet chungguskhan took Yes (sell) for $110.7k at an average 95.7¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $110.7k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95.7¢
- Implied odds
- 4.3%
- Size
- $110.7k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 17:09 EST
- Market close
- Mar 03, 19:58 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- chungguskhan
- Tx
- 0xa696c4c5…
This wallet's graded record
1/3-24.4 pts
expected 1.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -4 ptsYes price · entry 95.7¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k | excluded |