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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +48.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+48.7 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$318.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$55.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $992.0k volume · 526 trades · since Feb 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$55.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
91%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
253d
10 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | +48.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $38.2k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $83.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 95.6¢ | $131.0k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $18.7k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $14.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x9b698f…