← Wallets
+$6,925No · avg 89¢ → 94.5¢ · $114.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$6,370No · avg 86¢ → 95.8¢ · $65.1k+$2,367No · avg 93.8¢ → 97.8¢ · $58.9k+$852No · avg 96.3¢ → 97.8¢ · $56.8k−$138No · avg 95.4¢ → 95.2¢ · $45.2k−$367No · avg 98.2¢ → 97.4¢ · $42.2k+$4,244No · avg 86¢ → 96.9¢ · $39.2k−$1,984Yes · avg 82¢ → 78¢ · $32.8k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 8.3 wins, so it did -3.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Not No · Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-3.1 pts
Called / graded
8/9
Expected from price
8.3
Flagged volume
$568.2k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$9439 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? at 76¢) and the edge is -6.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 76% · n=1
80–100¢
88% vs 94% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$57.2k
Last 30 days +$8,367 · $7.24M volume · 8,282 trades · since Feb 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$107.6k
Open P&L · 42 positions
+$26.4k
Closed-position win rate
66%
265 closed
Wallet age · markets
609d
347 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.5 pts |
| Other | 8 | 7 | 7.3 | -4.0 pts |
History
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