← Wallets
−$30.0kYes · avg 67¢ → 34¢ · $30.9k−$150No · avg 86¢ → 86¢ · $25.6k+$392Yes · avg 69¢ → 72¢ · $13.2k+$629No · avg 85¢ → 90.5¢ · $10.3k−$26Yes · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,848−$25No · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,585+$60No · avg 89¢ → 90.5¢ · $3,643−$4No · avg 97¢ → 96.9¢ · $2,489
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did +71.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Not No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+71.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$4.22M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$323.4k
Last 30 days −$45 · $43.39M volume · 15,161 trades · since Jul 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$441.7k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$29.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
819d
870 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | +71.4 pts |
History
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excludedBUY Yes @ 99.6¢$49.8k
LOW tsybka · 128d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 95¢$10.4k
LOW tsybka · 272d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 93¢$23.2k
LOW tsybka · 278d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 92¢$13.1k
LOW tsybka · 279d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 94¢$15.4k
LOW tsybka · 280d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 93¢$12.7k
LOW tsybka · 280d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 92¢$44.8k
LOW tsybka · 280d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 79¢$39.5k
LOW tsybka · 282d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?calledBUY No @ 88¢$16.7k
LOW tsybka · 289d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excludedSELL No @ 99.9¢$194.7k
MED tsybka · 292d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excludedBUY No @ 99.9¢$38.2k
LOW tsybka · 330d ago
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