← Wallets
+$3,475No · avg 90¢ → 97¢ · $48.5k+$1,872No · avg 81¢ → 93.2¢ · $14.2k+$896No · avg 90¢ → 97.2¢ · $12.1k+$2,677No · avg 66¢ → 91.5¢ · $9,468+$274No · avg 69¢ → 96.4¢ · $964+$46No · avg 88¢ → 97.2¢ · $480
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$630.6k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3,029
Last 30 days +$1,542 · $4.33M volume · 2,812 trades · since Dec 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$5,612
Open P&L · 7 positions
+$1,628
Closed-position win rate
91%
78 closed
Wallet age · markets
312d
84 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $99.6k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $256.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
 Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $124.9k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k | excluded |
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