Whylik

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -48.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?−$531Yes · avg 27¢ → 5.1¢ · $120 Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?−$66No · avg 75¢ → 26¢ · $34 Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?−$235Yes · avg 84¢ → 10¢ · $34 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$93Yes · avg 19¢ → 4.5¢ · $29 Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?−$30Yes · avg 47¢ → 16¢ · $16 Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?−$91Yes · avg 49¢ → 7¢ · $15 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?−$2No · avg 17¢ → 14¢ · $14

Price-adjusted edge

-48.9 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.5

Flagged volume

$56.9k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±50.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$19.7k

Last 30 days −$61 · $1.67M volume · 6,840 trades · since Sep 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$81.4k

Open P&L · 13 positions

−$1,204

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

395d

1203 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.5	-48.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$20.2k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 51¢	$13.8k	49%	238d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$22.9k	0%	238d ago	excluded

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$20.2k

LOW Whylik · 237d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

SELL Yes @ 51¢$13.8k

LOW Whylik · 238d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$22.9k

LOW Whylik · 238d ago

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