← Wallets
+$1,776Yes · avg 63¢ → 66¢ · $33.7k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$456No · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $19.3k+$1,081No · avg 61¢ → 66¢ · $16.9k−$80Yes · avg 68¢ → 68¢ · $10.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$75Yes · avg 70¢ → 70¢ · $10.6k+$49Yes · avg 46¢ → 46¢ · $5,683−$504Yes · avg 25¢ → 22¢ · $4,579−$105No · avg 62¢ → 58¢ · $1,755
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -22.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-22.8 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$202.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$92.1k
Last 30 days +$2,696 · $11.58M volume · 7,887 trades · since May 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$458.4k
Open P&L · 20 positions
−$365.5k
Closed-position win rate
58%
337 closed
Wallet age · markets
899d
328 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -12.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -33.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $10.9k | pending |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $73.7k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $10.7k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 79¢ | $15.8k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $17.6k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 71¢ | $14.2k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
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