Elias.Thornwell

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +22.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$884No · avg 95¢ → 97.8¢ · $31.4k Xi Jinping out before 2027?+$415No · avg 95¢ → 96.8¢ · $23.6k Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?+$865No · avg 93.2¢ → 97¢ · $22.2k Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$6No · avg 81¢ → 82¢ · $15.1k Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$531No · avg 91.7¢ → 95¢ · $14.9k Trump out as President before 2027?+$507No · avg 91.9¢ → 95.8¢ · $12.5k Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$683No · avg 91.6¢ → 97.5¢ · $11.2k Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$1,071No · avg 88¢ → 97.9¢ · $11.0k

Price-adjusted edge

+22.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$129.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±41.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$33.2k

Last 30 days +$4,385 · $7.48M volume · 132,278 trades · since Jun 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$102.0k

Open P&L · 500 positions

−$10.1k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

489d

24357 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.8	+22.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$11.7k	78%	40d ago	called
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$11.6k	99%	51d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$12.1k	100%	129d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$16.7k	100%	144d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$20.9k	99%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$19.5k	100%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$12.0k	100%	205d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	237d ago	excluded

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 78¢$11.7k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 40d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$11.6k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 51d ago

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$12.1k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 129d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$16.7k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 144d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$20.9k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 198d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$19.5k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 200d ago

US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$12.0k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 205d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$25.0k

LOW Elias.Thornwell · 237d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa66790…