← Wallets
−$204No · avg 64¢ → 64¢ · $32.4k+$675Yes · avg 90¢ → 92¢ · $31.1k+$450No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $27.4k−$475No · avg 48¢ → 46¢ · $13.8k+$1,525No · avg 14¢ → 16¢ · $9,620+$3,778Yes · avg 21¢ → 36¢ · $8,843+$3,744No · avg 52¢ → 92.5¢ · $8,608+$418No · avg 68¢ → 72¢ · $6,100 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did -2.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.3 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$418.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$226 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? at 52¢) and the edge is -12.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 52% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 67% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$493.2k
Last 30 days +$65.9k · $79.18M volume · 51,859 trades · since Dec 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.28M
Open P&L · 50 positions
−$45.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
677d
2571 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.1 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +31.0 pts |
| Other | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | -13.2 pts |
History
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