Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$22
Return on staked
-3.7%
Bets
4/6 won
Edge vs price
-2.3 pts ±18.2
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 29, 23:00 EDTJul 15, 16:44 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 92¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 52¢ | called | 124d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 65¢ | missed | 169d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 76¢ | called | 273d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 60¢ | missed | 286d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 69¢ | called | 482d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.