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What this means. A wallet put $36.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$36.4k
BUY Yes @ 99¢ · 36,760 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)2.4× this wallet's usual betPolitics
What happened
Wallet SaylorMoon took Yes (buy) for $36.4k at an average 99¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $36.4k+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−9900American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99¢
- Implied odds
- 99.0%
- Size
- $36.4k
- Placed
- Mar 03, 20:37 EST
- Market close
- Mar 02, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- SaylorMoon
- Tx
- 0xfe3fb2cd…
This wallet's graded record
4/6-2.3 pts
expected 4.1 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.7k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $79.9k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $18.9k | excluded |