← Wallets
+$597Yes · avg 81¢ → 82¢ · $55.2k+$5,591Yes · avg 83¢ → 94.5¢ · $44.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$326No · avg 92.9¢ → 91.5¢ · $20.8k−$627No · avg 89¢ → 86¢ · $18.8k−$3No · avg 93.5¢ → 93.5¢ · $8,041−$1,112No · avg 91.9¢ → 80¢ · $7,849+$48Yes · avg 77¢ → 78¢ · $3,062+$93No · avg 93.4¢ → 96.6¢ · $2,801
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -47.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-47.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$116.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$10.8k
Last 30 days +$2,877 · $7.49M volume · 15,410 trades · since Oct 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$204.2k
Open P&L · 37 positions
+$2,283
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
374d
665 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -47.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $10.5k | missed |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 93.6¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $28.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
 Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
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