redvinny

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 6.1 wins, so it did +10.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +7.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?−$1,017Yes · avg 69¢ → 64¢ · $14.8k Spread: Seahawks (-16.5)−$11Chiefs · avg 90¢ → 90¢ · $2,613 Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)+$2Chiefs · avg 76¢ → 76¢ · $1,412 Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)−$4Chiefs · avg 88¢ → 88¢ · $1,264 Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)+$4Chiefs · avg 80¢ → 80¢ · $837 Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)−$1Chiefs · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $165

Price-adjusted edge

+10.3 pts

Called / graded

7/9

Expected from price

6.1

Flagged volume

$1.68M

Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$9k

9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Cavaliers vs. Knicks at 70¢) and the edge is +7.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 10% · n=1

40–60¢

0% vs 47% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 74% · n=4

80–100¢

100% vs 85% · n=3

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$997.8k

Last 30 days +$103.0k · $87.26M volume · 104,742 trades · since Nov 14, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Jaguars vs. Bengals	LOW SELL Jaguars @ 98¢	$11.1k	2%	19d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 46¢	$14.5k	54%	56d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢	$12.7k	65%	58d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY Vitality @ 82¢	$11.2k	82%	72d ago	excluded
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	LOW BUY JD Gaming @ 90¢	$13.4k	90%	72d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$17.7k	77%	93d ago	called
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 68¢	$23.7k	32%	96d ago	missed
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner	LOW SELL Dplus KIA @ 99.9¢	$13.5k	0%	96d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢	$11.8k	41%	96d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$15.2k	59%	97d ago	called
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢	$59.0k 3.6× usual	41%	97d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢	$51.1k 3.1× usual	42%	99d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢	$13.0k	20%	104d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 13¢	$48.3k 3.0× usual	87%	125d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 13¢	$42.0k 2.6× usual	13%	125d ago	missed
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	LOW BUY Taylor Fritz @ 81¢	$11.9k	81%	125d ago	excluded
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢	$18.8k	47%	126d ago	missed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 13¢	$51.2k 3.1× usual	87%	126d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢	$12.4k	13%	128d ago	missed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢	$12.4k	11%	128d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 17¢	$27.3k	83%	129d ago	called
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢	$10.5k	21%	130d ago	excluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢	$16.0k	84%	131d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	LOW SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢	$20.6k	0%	132d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	LOW SELL 9z @ 99.9¢	$21.8k	0%	135d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢	$12.0k	16%	137d ago	called
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	LOW SELL Alexander Zverev @ 99.9¢	$15.7k	0%	138d ago	excluded
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 84¢	$11.4k	84%	138d ago	excluded
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk	LOW SELL Marta Kostyuk @ 60¢	$11.9k	40%	144d ago	excluded
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk	LOW BUY Marta Kostyuk @ 61¢	$10.8k	61%	144d ago	excluded
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya	LOW SELL Anna Kalinskaya @ 99.9¢	$17.0k	0%	144d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Spurs @ 60¢	$10.3k	40%	146d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Spurs @ 61¢	$18.3k	61%	146d ago	excluded
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2	LOW SELL JD Gaming @ 99¢	$10.6k	1%	154d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Spurs @ 99¢	$16.7k	1%	158d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 70¢	$10.5k	70%	159d ago	called
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina	LOW BUY Elena Rybakina @ 83¢	$21.1k	83%	163d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	LOW SELL Spurs @ 64¢	$12.8k	36%	163d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	LOW BUY Spurs @ 65¢	$13.0k	65%	163d ago	called
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	LOW SELL 9z @ 99.9¢	$29.2k	0%	165d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	LOW SELL Spurs @ 99¢	$42.6k 2.6× usual	1%	168d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢	$19.8k	66%	168d ago	excluded
Lakers vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢	$11.5k	0%	169d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢	$19.0k	0%	184d ago	excluded
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	LOW SELL JD Gaming @ 99¢	$16.5k	1%	188d ago	excluded
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff	LOW SELL Karolina Muchova @ 99.9¢	$30.7k	0%	189d ago	excluded
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff	LOW BUY Karolina Muchova @ 75¢	$11.4k	75%	189d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢	$31.8k	83%	194d ago	missed
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur	LOW SELL Valentin Vacherot @ 99.9¢	$15.3k	0%	196d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW SELL No @ 67¢	$21.3k	33%	198d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 90¢	$15.4k	10%	202d ago	missed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$13.4k	67%	204d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 94.6¢	$12.2k	5%	213d ago	missed
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$17.4k	0%	222d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$10.9k	13%	226d ago	missed
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢	$19.8k	64%	226d ago	excluded
Celtics vs. Spurs	LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢	$19.9k	0%	227d ago	excluded
Celtics vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Spurs @ 94¢	$14.9k	94%	227d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢	$17.2k	86%	234d ago	called
Lakers vs. Warriors	LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.7¢	$10.1k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$16.0k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢	$12.3k	72%	237d ago	called
76ers vs. Pacers	LOW SELL 76ers @ 96¢	$17.5k	4%	241d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Pacers	LOW BUY 76ers @ 83¢	$16.6k	83%	241d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 84¢	$12.6k	16%	241d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Pistons	LOW SELL Spurs @ 98¢	$20.5k	2%	242d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Pistons	LOW BUY Spurs @ 83¢	$14.5k	83%	242d ago	excluded
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY Gen.G @ 87¢	$26.4k	87%	245d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 14¢	$30.2k	14%	248d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢	$13.2k	16%	248d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?	LOW SELL No @ 93.2¢	$13.4k	7%	260d ago	missed
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?	LOW SELL No @ 82¢	$10.9k	18%	260d ago	missed
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 90.6¢	$18.5k	91%	260d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$16.3k	85%	260d ago	called
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	LOW SELL JD Gaming @ 99.9¢	$19.3k	0%	270d ago	excluded
Rams vs. Seahawks	MED BUY Seahawks @ 70¢	$55.7k 3.4× usual	70%	271d ago	excluded
Patriots vs. Broncos	LOW SELL Patriots @ 99¢	$29.8k	1%	271d ago	excluded
Patriots vs. Broncos	LOW BUY Patriots @ 70¢	$21.0k	70%	277d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$20.9k	80%	283d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$41.1k 2.5× usual	19%	289d ago	missed
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$15.1k	78%	292d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 82¢	$26.4k	82%	292d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$53.9k 3.3× usual	77%	315d ago	called

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	3	2	1.6	+11.9 pts
Sports	5	4	3.7	+5.8 pts
Other	1	1	0.7	+28.0 pts

redvinny

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Graded P&L at their stakes

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