← Wallets
−$1,075Yes · avg 78¢ → 75¢ · $25.1k+$2,910Yes · avg 72¢ → 84¢ · $21.3k+$425No · avg 78¢ → 80¢ · $19.8k+$4,801No · avg 54¢ → 94.5¢ · $11.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,251No · avg 86¢ → 97.8¢ · $10.8k+$250No · avg 96.2¢ → 98.7¢ · $9,870+$348Yes · avg 75¢ → 78¢ · $8,644+$863Yes · avg 19¢ → 22¢ · $5,228
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +49.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+49.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$232.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$201.5k
Last 30 days +$1,775 · $31.07M volume · 72,899 trades · since May 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.87M
Open P&L · 141 positions
−$151.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
513d
1091 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | +49.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $12.0k | called |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 78¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $11.3k | called |
 Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $75.2k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
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