← Wallets
+$1,603No · avg 94.2¢ → 97.4¢ · $48.1k+$1,635Yes · avg 92.3¢ → 97¢ · $33.7k−$304No · avg 96.9¢ → 95.8¢ · $25.1k−$930Yes · avg 92.8¢ → 88¢ · $15.4k+$214No · avg 97¢ → 98.5¢ · $14.5k+$4,189No · avg 67¢ → 96.4¢ · $13.6k−$631No · avg 92.6¢ → 88¢ · $10.9k+$229Yes · avg 89¢ → 91¢ · $8,859
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 8.1 wins, so it did -24.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-24.1 pts
Called / graded
5/13
Expected from price
8.1
Flagged volume
$1.04M
Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$140k13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? at 71¢) and the edge is -28.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 67% · n=2
80–100¢
57% vs 89% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$34.0k
Last 30 days +$12.9k · $8.54M volume · 5,566 trades · since Dec 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$172.7k
Open P&L · 147 positions
−$138.7k
Closed-position win rate
78%
225 closed
Wallet age · markets
324d
312 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 3 | 6.5 | -43.8 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +20.0 pts |
| Politics | 4 | 1 | 0.8 | +4.1 pts |
History
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