← Wallets
+$11.1kNo · avg 50¢ → 85¢ · $27.0k+$3,202No · avg 38¢ → 82¢ · $5,999−$11.1kYes · avg 50¢ → 15¢ · $4,897+$13No · avg 96.9¢ → 97.8¢ · $1,417−$220Yes · avg 20¢ → 16¢ · $958+$10Yes · avg 25¢ → 32¢ · $51+$9Yes · avg 38¢ → 82¢ · $16
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +2.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -5.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+2.9 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$1.46M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$51k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals at 64¢) and the edge is -5.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
67% vs 66% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$887.0k
Last 30 days −$597 · $81.32M volume · 130,999 trades · since Nov 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$11.12M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$8.43M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
349d
5759 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.7 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +6.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW BUY Tunisia @ 80¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
 Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves | MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 69¢ | $175.9k 5.7× usual |
excluded |
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $55.0k | excluded |
 Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 71¢ | $17.8k | called |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ | $78.8k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | MED BUY Thunder @ 83¢ | $149.4k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 87¢ | $95.7k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 60¢ | $29.3k | excluded |
 LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | LOW BUY Weibo Gaming @ 75¢ | $28.1k | excluded |
 Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | LOW BUY Blue Jackets @ 58¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | MED BUY Islanders @ 61¢ | $95.6k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $140.7k 4.6× usual |
called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $44.1k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $123.1k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $12.6k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $254.7k 8.3× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 98¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
 LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 64¢ | $13.1k | called |
| LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage | LOW BUY BNK FEARX @ 76¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Rangers vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Islanders @ 57¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
 Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 66¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
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