← Wallets
−$25.5kYes · avg 23¢ → 16¢ · $62.3k+$884Yes · avg 40¢ → 44¢ · $8,415+$309No · avg 76¢ → 79¢ · $6,321+$460Yes · avg 1.8¢ → 1.9¢ · $4,691+$1,607No · avg 61¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,590 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$7,129Yes · avg 43¢ → 17¢ · $4,518+$2,183No · avg 15¢ → 80¢ · $2,683+$654Yes · avg 3.5¢ → 5¢ · $2,240
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did +55.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+55.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$138.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$411.2k
Last 30 days −$25.1k · $40.15M volume · 80,723 trades · since Nov 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.39M
Open P&L · 177 positions
−$185.9k
Closed-position win rate
82%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
348d
942 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +10.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 0.4 | +78.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 10¢ | $11.9k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 75¢ | $13.9k | called |
 Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $12.0k | called |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $44.3k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 95.1¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 96.4¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
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