betwick

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 21. The prices it paid implied about 12.1 wins, so it did -0.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-0.3 pts over 21 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$1,534No · avg 71¢ → 74¢ · $39.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?+$410No · avg 92¢ → 93.5¢ · $25.5k US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?+$5,441Yes · avg 75¢ → 97¢ · $23.9k NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?−$6,715Yes · avg 25¢ → 18¢ · $19.0k Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?+$1,500Yes · avg 16¢ → 18¢ · $17.5k Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?+$910Yes · avg 57¢ → 64¢ · $8,548 · 0 proven with, 1 against Will there be no Hormuz agreement?+$1,504No · avg 5.8¢ → 7¢ · $8,446 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?−$6,260Yes · avg 12¢ → 6¢ · $6,556

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 3 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

-0.3 pts

Called / graded

12/21

Expected from price

12.1

Flagged volume

$2.22M

Sample size21 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.1 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$89k

21 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 33¢) and the edge is -3.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 16% · n=3

20–40¢

25% vs 34% · n=4

40–60¢

50% vs 49% · n=4

60–80¢

80% vs 73% · n=5

80–100¢

100% vs 92% · n=5

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$567.0k

Last 30 days −$99.2k · $41.37M volume · 24,030 trades · since Apr 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$18.5k	75%	2d ago	pending
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$25.1k	92%	3d ago	pending
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢	$11.2k	16%	3d ago	pending
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 96¢	$13.1k	4%	29d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 80¢	$12.6k	20%	42d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$40.0k 2.1× usual	80%	42d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 43¢	$44.2k 2.3× usual	43%	43d ago	missed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$34.3k	88%	47d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢	$22.8k	57%	53d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$21.2k	79%	54d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 49¢	$14.7k	49%	54d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢	$12.9k	43%	56d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 61¢	$55.0k 2.8× usual	39%	56d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢	$19.2k	35%	56d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 72¢	$14.8k	72%	57d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$12.7k	68%	57d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢	$13.0k	35%	58d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 67¢	$21.0k	33%	58d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$13.3k	75%	67d ago	missed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$16.2k	99%	70d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$43.7k 2.3× usual	75%	91d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$16.6k	69%	94d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$23.1k	54%	95d ago	called
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$18.1k	68%	101d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$13.2k	76%	117d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY Yes @ 10¢	$10.0k	10%	126d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 81¢	$25.3k	19%	131d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢	$14.9k	20%	134d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢	$11.1k	18%	134d ago	missed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$69.7k 3.6× usual	100%	142d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢	$10.2k	14%	143d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 24¢	$16.0k	76%	169d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 15¢	$19.0k	15%	171d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$17.9k	100%	176d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY Yes @ 28¢	$19.4k	28%	188d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢	$13.6k	60%	189d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢	$13.4k	40%	189d ago	missed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$29.5k	99%	193d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.8¢	$13.7k	93%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 5.1× usual	100%	205d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 30¢	$15.0k	30%	207d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$36.1k	86%	211d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 42¢	$23.5k	42%	217d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 44¢	$26.8k	44%	217d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 78¢	$27.6k	22%	218d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$23.0k	96%	220d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢	$50.5k 2.6× usual	94%	223d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 66¢	$11.9k	66%	224d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 64¢	$13.2k	64%	231d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$85.7k 4.4× usual	86%	232d ago	called
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢	$47.2k 2.4× usual	94%	233d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.7¢	$19.1k	97%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 88¢	$72.5k 3.7× usual	88%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 38¢	$20.0k	38%	241d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 37¢	$63.5k 3.3× usual	37%	242d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 80¢	$18.6k	20%	242d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$40.5k 2.1× usual	19%	242d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$46.5k 2.4× usual	93%	261d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 66¢	$21.1k	34%	261d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 79¢	$15.8k	21%	262d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$17.6k	88%	266d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$39.6k 2.0× usual	84%	275d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 58¢	$14.5k	58%	275d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 33¢	$13.6k	33%	282d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$14.3k	78%	282d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 79¢	$41.8k 2.2× usual	79%	283d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 79¢	$52.5k 2.7× usual	21%	283d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 57¢	$19.2k	57%	285d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$32.2k	80%	287d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 91¢	$31.9k	9%	291d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$23.6k	79%	292d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$36.0k	90%	292d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$39.8k 2.1× usual	100%	299d ago	excluded
US recession in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢	$18.1k	1%	310d ago	excluded
US recession in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$18.1k	99%	313d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$49.8k 2.6× usual	100%	317d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$59.6k 3.1× usual	1%	318d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$39.7k 2.0× usual	99%	319d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$20.1k	1%	331d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.6¢	$15.0k	93%	365d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 92.5¢	$13.9k	7%	367d ago	missed

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	20	11	11.4	-2.0 pts
Sports	1	1	0.7	+32.3 pts

betwick

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

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