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−$6,970Yes · avg 32¢ → 18¢ · $9,579+$2,129No · avg 24¢ → 81¢ · $3,023+$78Yes · avg 3.7¢ → 5.2¢ · $262
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 7.7 wins, so it did -6.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.0 pts
Called / graded
7/12
Expected from price
7.7
Flagged volume
$738.9k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$69k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? at 67¢) and the edge is -9.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=2
60–80¢
80% vs 71% · n=5
80–100¢
75% vs 89% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$283.0k
Last 30 days +$1,207 · $14.42M volume · 26,614 trades · since Dec 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.77M
Open P&L · 62 positions
−$707.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
677d
1255 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 7 | 4 | 4.7 | -9.3 pts |
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 3.1 | -1.3 pts |
History
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