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What this means. A wallet put $17.4k on not No, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$17.4k
SELL No @ 99.2¢ · 17,500 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Politics
What happened
Wallet starbuck02 took No (sell) for $17.4k at an average 99.2¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $17.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.2¢
- Implied odds
- 0.8%
- Size
- $17.4k
- Placed
- Apr 16, 16:27 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 11, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- starbuck02
- Tx
- 0x692a5a8e…
This wallet's graded record
7/12-6.0 pts
expected 7.7 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $14.0k | excluded |