gopfan2

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.5 wins, so it did +4.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$45.0kYes · avg 26¢ → 83¢ · $65.5k 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House+$1,751Yes · avg 63¢ → 66¢ · $33.2k · 2 proven with, 0 against Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$13.1kYes · avg 17¢ → 10¢ · $19.8k Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?+$375Yes · avg 73¢ → 74¢ · $18.6k Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?+$424No · avg 73¢ → 74¢ · $17.2k Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?−$800Yes · avg 84¢ → 80¢ · $16.0k Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?+$10.9kYes · avg 17¢ → 85¢ · $13.5k Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?+$1,056No · avg 68¢ → 74¢ · $13.2k

Price-adjusted edge

+4.1 pts

Called / graded

6/11

Expected from price

5.5

Flagged volume

$1.98M

Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.4 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$63k

11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 35¢) and the edge is -2.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 11% · n=3

20–40¢

33% vs 34% · n=3

60–80¢

100% vs 70% · n=2

80–100¢

100% vs 93% · n=3

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$1.72M

Last 30 days +$96.4k · $70.70M volume · 80,321 trades · since Aug 21, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	4	1	1.0	-1.2 pts
Politics	4	2	2.0	+1.1 pts
Crypto	2	2	1.9	+6.9 pts
Sports	1	1	0.7	+32.0 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY Yes @ 86¢	$31.2k	86%	34d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY Yes @ 75¢	$106.3k 5.3× usual	75%	35d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 81¢	$200.8k 9.9× usual	19%	35d ago	missed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$33.2k	69%	46d ago	called
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$56.3k 2.8× usual	98%	83d ago	excluded
France vs. England: Team to Win	LOW BUY France @ 47¢	$28.2k	47%	97d ago	excluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$41.2k 2.0× usual	0%	133d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$74.4k 3.7× usual	99%	144d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 95¢	$57.0k 2.8× usual	5%	170d ago	missed
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$30.1k	0%	177d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$14.0k	1%	184d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 90¢	$51.5k 2.5× usual	10%	206d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED SELL No @ 96.5¢	$28.9k	4%	206d ago	missed
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)	LOW BUY Duke Blue Devils @ 52¢	$10.3k	52%	210d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$69.5k 3.4× usual	1%	212d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$15.1k	96%	217d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$34.5k	2%	217d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢	$48.8k 2.4× usual	2%	219d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$33.9k	97%	220d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢	$14.3k	96%	222d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 67¢	$20.1k	33%	229d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 62¢	$15.5k	62%	232d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$54.8k 2.7× usual	0%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$11.8k	91%	239d ago	excluded
VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5	LOW BUY Over @ 51¢	$10.2k	51%	240d ago	excluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$14.2k	71%	240d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 90.4¢	$12.7k	90%	250d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$11.0k	69%	255d ago	called
Seahawks vs. Patriots	LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢	$21.8k	68%	258d ago	called
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢	$18.6k	3%	258d ago	excluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	LOW BUY No @ 93.8¢	$21.5k	94%	258d ago	excluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	LOW SELL Alcaraz @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	0%	265d ago	excluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 74¢	$14.8k	74%	265d ago	called
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.5¢	$12.3k	1%	267d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢	$19.5k	35%	268d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 69¢	$24.0k	31%	268d ago	missed
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$11.0k	75%	280d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢	$11.6k	35%	282d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 79¢	$31.6k	21%	284d ago	missed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 93.7¢	$10.3k	94%	284d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$12.2k	81%	287d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$18.6k	81%	289d ago	called
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$29.9k	0%	331d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$109.5k 5.4× usual	100%	332d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 97¢	$14.0k	97%	333d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$13.4k	87%	334d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.9¢	$16.1k	94%	356d ago	called
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	LOW SELL No @ 83¢	$13.3k	17%	359d ago	missed
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	LOW SELL No @ 86¢	$17.2k	14%	360d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 90.8¢	$37.5k	9%	361d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 92.9¢	$39.5k	7%	361d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 93.2¢	$11.7k	7%	364d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 92.5¢	$53.7k 2.7× usual	93%	368d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 93.1¢	$27.9k	7%	368d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$11.4k	88%	372d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 88¢	$52.3k 2.6× usual	88%	379d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$12.2k	13%	380d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$13.1k	13%	380d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 87¢	$31.3k	13%	380d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$13.0k	87%	383d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$21.1k	13%	384d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 82¢	$20.4k	18%	449d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢	$31.7k	74%	485d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢	$13.6k	68%	612d ago	missed

gopfan2

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