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What this means. A wallet put $12.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.3k
SELL Yes @ 98.5¢ · 12,530 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Politics
What happened
Wallet gopfan2 took Yes (sell) for $12.3k at an average 98.5¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 98.5¢
- Implied odds
- 1.5%
- Size
- $12.3k
- Placed
- Jan 29, 19:47 EST
- Market close
- Jan 25, 09:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- gopfan2
- Tx
- 0xe1724443…
This wallet's graded record
6/11+4.1 pts
expected 5.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.5k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $46.6k | excluded |