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What this means. A wallet put $39.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 7% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$39.5k
SELL Yes @ 92.9¢ · 42,500 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet gopfan2 took Yes (sell) for $39.5k at an average 92.9¢. At that price the market implied a 7% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $39.5k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 92.9¢
- Implied odds
- 7.1%
- Size
- $39.5k
- Placed
- Oct 27, 22:17 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 04, 07:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- gopfan2
- Tx
- 0x4d57aa0e…
This wallet's graded record
6/11+4.1 pts
expected 5.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -7 ptsYes price · entry 92.9¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $163.4k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $63.6k | excluded |