Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$290
Return on staked
-24.2%
Bets
7/12 won
Edge vs price
-6.0 pts ±11.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -11.4 pts (4/6). Newer half: -0.5 pts (3/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 07, 19:55 ESTJun 21, 16:53 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | 70¢ | missed | 124d ago |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | 69¢ | called | 125d ago |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | 68¢ | called | 126d ago |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | 67¢ | called | 126d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 22¢ | missed | 177d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 7¢ | missed | 177d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 81¢ | called | 188d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | 87¢ | called | 199d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | 94¢ | missed | 206d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 96¢ | called | 237d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 79¢ | called | 238d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 32¢ | missed | 258d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.