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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -87.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-87.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$168.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$91.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.78M volume · 4,788 trades · since Dec 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$84.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1,782
Closed-position win rate
58%
225 closed
Wallet age · markets
677d
196 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -87.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 87¢ | $34.5k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $11.9k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 75¢ | $11.2k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $13.1k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2f3360…