95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$7,151No · avg 90¢ → 97.1¢ · $92.1k Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$10.7kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $28.9k Iran Nuke before 2027?+$2,061No · avg 88¢ → 95.5¢ · $26.9k Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?+$1,565No · avg 90¢ → 97.3¢ · $20.8k 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?+$504No · avg 95¢ → 98.6¢ · $13.9k US takes Panama Canal before 2027?+$1,059No · avg 89¢ → 97.1¢ · $12.3k Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$1,133No · avg 87¢ → 97.8¢ · $10.8k Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?+$792No · avg 88¢ → 96.9¢ · $9,087

Price-adjusted edge

+3.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$7.41M

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$170.8k

Last 30 days +$4,785 · $60.66M volume · 39,024 trades · since Dec 31, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$20.2k	100%	80d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$72.1k 2.6× usual	0%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$27.9k	99%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$21.1k	100%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 96¢	$12.1k	4%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢	$10.7k	97%	131d ago	called
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$99.6k 3.6× usual	0%	142d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$43.2k	99%	144d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$54.9k	0%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$22.3k	99%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$66.6k 2.4× usual	99%	144d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	100%	144d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$49.6k	99%	151d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢	$27.7k	99%	154d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$13.4k	99%	157d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$10.7k	99%	157d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$52.8k	99%	157d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$12.2k	98%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	MED SELL No @ 95.2¢	$27.5k	5%	160d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	168d ago	excluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k	100%	174d ago	excluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$49.9k	100%	174d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$10.1k	100%	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$31.9k	100%	178d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$79.9k 2.8× usual	0%	182d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 3.6× usual	0%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$17.7k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$23.3k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$149.6k 5.3× usual	100%	185d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$14.8k	99%	190d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 3.6× usual	100%	190d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$28.7k	99%	190d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$10.0k	0%	193d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢	$24.3k	97%	196d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$942.3k 33.6× usual	100%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$1.18M 42.1× usual	100%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$19.6k	100%	201d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$323.8k 11.5× usual	100%	202d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$383.5k 13.7× usual	100%	202d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$11.6k	100%	205d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$228.4k 8.1× usual	100%	206d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$99.9k 3.6× usual	0%	206d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$44.6k	100%	207d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	100%	207d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$29.9k	100%	212d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢	$10.3k	98%	218d ago	excluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$21.6k	100%	235d ago	excluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$100.9k 3.6× usual	100%	236d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$149.8k 5.3× usual	100%	236d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$99.9k 3.6× usual	100%	237d ago	excluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$15.6k	99%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.9¢	$16.9k	98%	237d ago	excluded
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$27.2k	100%	237d ago	excluded
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$10.0k	100%	238d ago	excluded
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$10.5k	95%	238d ago	excluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢	$25.5k	1%	238d ago	excluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$26.7k	100%	238d ago	excluded
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$11.2k	99%	242d ago	excluded
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$15.0k	100%	246d ago	excluded
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$49.0k	100%	254d ago	excluded
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$11.0k	100%	255d ago	excluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$49.4k	100%	258d ago	excluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$16.9k	100%	258d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$95.5k 3.4× usual	0%	258d ago	excluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$188.0k 6.7× usual	100%	258d ago	excluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$10.1k	100%	258d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$24.3k	100%	263d ago	excluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$64.4k 2.3× usual	100%	263d ago	excluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$115.0k 4.1× usual	100%	263d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$39.6k	1%	263d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$25.9k	99%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	0%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k	0%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	0%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	0%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$24.9k	0%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$225.8k 8.0× usual	100%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$135.3k 4.8× usual	100%	265d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$28.2k	100%	266d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$31.8k	100%	267d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$68.8k 2.5× usual	100%	269d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$11.2k	99%	278d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$12.1k	99%	281d ago	excluded
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$22.6k	99%	291d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$483.0k 17.2× usual	100%	294d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$299.7k 10.7× usual	100%	294d ago	excluded

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965

Current positions

Polymarket profile

By category

History

Share this record