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+$327No · avg 94¢ → 94.5¢ · $61.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$369No · avg 84¢ → 86¢ · $23.9k+$240Yes · avg 84¢ → 85¢ · $18.5k+$16Yes · avg 64¢ → 80¢ · $80
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did -18.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-18.4 pts
Called / graded
2/7
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$1.80M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$79k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? at 70¢) and the edge is -26.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 14% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 52% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$412.9k
Last 30 days +$580 · $10.18M volume · 4,574 trades · since Nov 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$399.6k
Open P&L · 4 positions
+$951
Closed-position win rate
63%
125 closed
Wallet age · markets
717d
120 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 7 | 2 | 3.3 | -18.4 pts |
History
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