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What this means. A wallet put $11.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 46% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.3k
BUY No @ 46¢ · 24,745 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Llalalala took No (buy) for $11.3k at an average 46¢. At that price the market implied a 46% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.3k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 46¢ means
46%chance the market gave
+119American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 46¢
- Implied odds
- 45.6%
- Size
- $11.3k
- Placed
- Apr 01, 09:23 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 08, 20:28 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Llalalala
- Tx
- 0xd27d38ac…
This wallet's graded record
2/7-18.4 pts
expected 3.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -46 ptsNo price · entry 46¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $870.2k 34.2× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.13M 5.2× usual |
excluded |