← Wallets
+$93.7kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $252.8k−$93.7kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $65.4k+$1,171No · avg 82¢ → 97.2¢ · $7,462+$2,530No · avg 60¢ → 91.5¢ · $7,435+$647No · avg 84¢ → 95.7¢ · $5,238+$374No · avg 88¢ → 96.2¢ · $4,514+$755No · avg 76¢ → 93.5¢ · $4,033+$89No · avg 95.8¢ → 98.3¢ · $3,521
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 5.4 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +0.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
6/9
Expected from price
5.4
Flagged volume
$687.8k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$29k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 43¢) and the edge is +0.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 25% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 43% · n=1
60–80¢
75% vs 73% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$9,164
Last 30 days −$2,533 · $5.73M volume · 4,713 trades · since Nov 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$22.5k
Open P&L · 90 positions
+$1,351
Closed-position win rate
69%
288 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
363 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -25.0 pts |
| Other | 8 | 6 | 5.2 | +10.4 pts |
History
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