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What this means. A wallet put $28.5k on not No, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$28.5k
SELL No @ 95¢ · 30,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet twe2nty took No (sell) for $28.5k at an average 95¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $28.5k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95¢
- Implied odds
- 5.0%
- Size
- $28.5k
- Placed
- Jan 18, 01:25 EST
- Market close
- Jan 25, 09:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- twe2nty
- Tx
- 0x61ec06d7…
This wallet's graded record
6/9+6.4 pts
expected 5.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -5 ptsNo price · entry 95¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $35.2k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $87.1k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $29.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |