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jocpolitic

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 14. The prices it paid implied about 10.1 wins, so it did -0.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 14 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.4 pts
Called / graded
10/14
Expected from price
10.1
Flagged volume
$1.59M
Sample size14 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$15k
14 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$19k$0$27k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? at 71¢) and the edge is -2.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 75% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$63.6k
Last 30 days −$14 · $11.90M volume · 15,535 trades · since Dec 16, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$452.1k
Open P&L · 86 positions
−$462.2k
Closed-position win rate
69%
113 closed
Wallet age · markets
312d
146 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other1198.6+3.3 pts
Politics311.4-13.8 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢ $20.5k7% 136d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED SELL Yes @ 65¢ $29.2k35% 138d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $21.3k0% 139d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ $12.3k28% 141d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ $60.7k
3.0× usual
3% 142d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.1¢ $62.5k
3.1× usual
3% 142d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ $19.5k36% 159d agomissed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $34.1k63% 161d agocalled
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ $13.7k35% 165d agomissed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ $14.0k35% 170d agomissed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢ $43.0k
2.1× usual
37% 170d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $16.0k95% 184d agocalled
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED SELL Yes @ 67¢ $28.5k33% 184d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $20.1k2% 185d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $10.7k3% 185d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $34.8k87% 185d agocalled
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $16.4k91% 189d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 75¢ $13.6k25% 189d agomissed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $49.9k
2.5× usual
63% 192d agocalled
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED SELL No @ 77¢ $40.6k
2.0× usual
23% 192d agomissed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢ $11.3k41% 192d agomissed
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $14.3k71% 193d agocalled
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ $52.4k
2.6× usual
44% 193d agocalled
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 74¢ $11.2k26% 194d agomissed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 45¢ $12.2k55% 194d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $11.5k84% 194d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $18.8k98% 195d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $34.7k71% 196d agocalled
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 85¢ $13.8k15% 196d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $42.5k
2.1× usual
91% 197d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $10.3k97% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $15.0k1% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $56.4k
2.8× usual
94% 206d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 95.2¢ $21.9k5% 207d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $83.7k
4.2× usual
93% 209d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 83¢ $16.6k17% 210d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $17.4k83% 211d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $17.9k7% 214d agomissed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $29.9k87% 215d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED SELL No @ 76¢ $39.5k24% 215d agomissed
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $39.2k97% 219d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $17.3k71% 222d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $70.2k
3.5× usual
94% 223d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 65¢ $11.8k65% 235d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $23.1k0% 235d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $17.5k77% 236d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $14.6k77% 236d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $87.1k
4.3× usual
0% 257d agoexcluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $17.9k0% 257d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $29.7k1% 258d agoexcluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ $25.2k43% 265d agocalled
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $14.2k63% 266d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 29¢ $19.3k29% 268d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $35.2k96% 278d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?MED BUY No @ 94.5¢ $39.3k95% 278d agocalled
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $21.3k96% 291d agocalled
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 91.7¢ $16.2k92% 292d agocalled
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 93¢$20.5k
LOW jocpolitic · 136d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 65¢$29.2k
MED jocpolitic · 138d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$21.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 139d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 72¢$12.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 141d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 97.5¢$60.7k
LOW jocpolitic · 142d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 97.1¢$62.5k
LOW jocpolitic · 142d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 64¢$19.5k
LOW jocpolitic · 159d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY Yes @ 63¢$34.1k
LOW jocpolitic · 161d ago
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
BUY Yes @ 35¢$13.7k
LOW jocpolitic · 165d ago
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
BUY Yes @ 35¢$14.0k
LOW jocpolitic · 170d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 63¢$43.0k
LOW jocpolitic · 170d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?called
BUY No @ 95¢$16.0k
LOW jocpolitic · 184d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 67¢$28.5k
MED jocpolitic · 184d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.5¢$20.1k
LOW jocpolitic · 185d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 96.9¢$10.7k
LOW jocpolitic · 185d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?called
BUY No @ 87¢$34.8k
LOW jocpolitic · 185d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY No @ 91¢$16.4k
LOW jocpolitic · 189d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?missed
SELL No @ 75¢$13.6k
LOW jocpolitic · 189d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY Yes @ 63¢$49.9k
LOW jocpolitic · 192d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL No @ 77¢$40.6k
MED jocpolitic · 192d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 59¢$11.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 192d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY No @ 71¢$14.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 193d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY Yes @ 44¢$52.4k
MED jocpolitic · 193d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL No @ 74¢$11.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 194d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 45¢$12.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 194d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
BUY No @ 84¢$11.5k
LOW jocpolitic · 194d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$18.8k
LOW jocpolitic · 195d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?called
BUY No @ 71¢$34.7k
LOW jocpolitic · 196d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL No @ 85¢$13.8k
LOW jocpolitic · 196d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?called
BUY No @ 91¢$42.5k
LOW jocpolitic · 197d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$10.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 200d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$15.0k
LOW jocpolitic · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 94¢$56.4k
LOW jocpolitic · 206d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 95.2¢$21.9k
LOW jocpolitic · 207d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 93¢$83.7k
LOW jocpolitic · 209d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 83¢$16.6k
LOW jocpolitic · 210d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?called
BUY No @ 83¢$17.4k
LOW jocpolitic · 211d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 93¢$17.9k
LOW jocpolitic · 214d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?called
BUY No @ 87¢$29.9k
LOW jocpolitic · 215d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
SELL No @ 76¢$39.5k
MED jocpolitic · 215d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?called
BUY No @ 97¢$39.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 219d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 71¢$17.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 222d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?called
BUY No @ 93.9¢$70.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 223d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 65¢$11.8k
LOW jocpolitic · 235d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$23.1k
LOW jocpolitic · 235d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 77¢$17.5k
LOW jocpolitic · 236d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 77¢$14.6k
LOW jocpolitic · 236d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$87.1k
LOW jocpolitic · 257d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$17.9k
LOW jocpolitic · 257d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$29.7k
LOW jocpolitic · 258d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?called
SELL Yes @ 57¢$25.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 265d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?missed
BUY Yes @ 63¢$14.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 266d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?missed
BUY No @ 29¢$19.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 268d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called
BUY No @ 96.5¢$35.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 278d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called
BUY No @ 94.5¢$39.3k
MED jocpolitic · 278d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called
BUY No @ 96.4¢$21.3k
LOW jocpolitic · 291d ago
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 91.7¢$16.2k
LOW jocpolitic · 292d ago

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