Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$252
Return on staked
-18.0%
Bets
10/14 won
Edge vs price
-0.4 pts ±9.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +5.9 pts (6/7). Newer half: -6.6 pts (4/7). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 04, 15:25 ESTMay 11, 16:26 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 35¢ | missed | 166d ago |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 35¢ | missed | 171d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 95¢ | called | 185d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 25¢ | missed | 190d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 71¢ | called | 196d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 91¢ | called | 198d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 94¢ | called | 207d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 93¢ | called | 210d ago |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | 97¢ | called | 220d ago |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | 94¢ | called | 223d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 77¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 77¢ | called | 236d ago |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | 29¢ | missed | 269d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | 92¢ | called | 293d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.