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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -15.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.7 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$184.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$368.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.83M volume · 10,416 trades · since Oct 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$366.5k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$1,207
Closed-position win rate
73%
257 closed
Wallet age · markets
363d
237 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -15.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 35¢ | $14.7k | missed |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $45.3k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $45.3k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $29.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ | $12.1k | called |
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