← Wallets
−$1,393No · avg 93¢ → 91.5¢ · $83.2k+$178Yes · avg 70¢ → 97.7¢ · $628+$37Yes · avg 12¢ → 16¢ · $137−$0Yes · avg 94¢ → 91.5¢ · $9
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did -17.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-17.5 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$2.66M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$41k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? at 71¢) and the edge is -29.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 44% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 75% · n=2
80–100¢
0% vs 86% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$669.4k
Last 30 days −$15.6k · $38.59M volume · 13,672 trades · since Oct 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.29M
Open P&L · 208 positions
−$1.56M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
381d
1084 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -7.5 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 2.1 | -36.1 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +28.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lions vs. Panthers | LOW SELL Panthers @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 62¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED SELL Khamzat Chimaev @ 79¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 82¢ | $32.8k | excluded |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 82¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | MED BUY Knicks @ 87¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 78¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 87¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 90.2¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 98.6¢ | $75.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Raptors @ 42¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
 Golden Knights vs. Utah | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 95¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 52¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Lakers @ 26¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Lakers @ 40¢ | $77.3k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $123.7k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 99.4¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 90¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 44¢ | $25.5k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | HIGH SELL Timberwolves @ 93.2¢ | $120.7k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 44¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 95.7¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $31.6k | missed |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $27.1k | called |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Michigan Wolverines @ 99.9¢ | $52.5k | excluded |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Michigan Wolverines @ 95.3¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED SELL Michigan Wolverines @ 80¢ | $87.1k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ | $49.2k | called |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ | $31.2k | called |
| Clippers vs. Kings | LOW BUY Clippers @ 95.6¢ | $30.2k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Michigan Wolverines @ 99.9¢ | $92.6k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 91.9¢ | $49.7k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 68¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW SELL Heat @ 94¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 95¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $22.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 75¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Michigan Wolverines @ 99.9¢ | $87.6k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 96.7¢ | $74.2k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Canucks vs. Flames | LOW SELL Flames @ 99.9¢ | $29.8k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW SELL Arizona Wildcats @ 99.9¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 98¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
| Canucks vs. Flames | LOW BUY Flames @ 60¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW SELL Connecticut Huskies @ 97.4¢ | $94.1k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | MED BUY Connecticut Huskies @ 85¢ | $72.7k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 45¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW SELL Michigan State Spartans @ 99.9¢ | $47.5k | excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | MED BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 93.4¢ | $31.5k | excluded |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Kings @ 87¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | MED BUY Lakers @ 94.7¢ | $46.0k | excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Lakers | MED SELL Lakers @ 73¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 32¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 76¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 76¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW SELL Celtics @ 56¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | MED BUY Nuggets @ 85¢ | $32.1k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $35.1k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Lakers @ 91¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $92.9k 3.4× usual |
called |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $38.1k | excluded |
| Nets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 90.6¢ | $36.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 37¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $34.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 80¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 78¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED SELL Patriots @ 37¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 62¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Patriots @ 66¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 92.5¢ | $20.0k | missed |
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