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Nik-

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?−$1,897No · avg 94.2¢ → 79¢ · $9,638 · 1 proven with, 0 againstBitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?+$0No · avg 94.8¢ → 94.8¢ · $5,489Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$146No · avg 98.1¢ → 92.2¢ · $2,306Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?+$746No · avg 31¢ → 76¢ · $1,249Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?−$1,021No · avg 79¢ → 42¢ · $1,128Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?+$61No · avg 79¢ → 84¢ · $907Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?+$175No · avg 52¢ → 78¢ · $522Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?+$1No · avg 95.7¢ → 96¢ · $347
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$276.4k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$19.7k
Last 30 days +$149 · $13.99M volume · 21,548 trades · since Jun 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$144.3k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$1,785
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
847d
2414 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $13.9k99% 96d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $17.5k0% 139d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $10.9k100% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $13.3k0% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $15.0k100% 177d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $13.8k0% 185d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $13.9k1% 186d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $15.7k1% 186d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $14.8k1% 186d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $11.5k98% 193d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $12.0k0% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ $13.7k99% 199d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $13.9k1% 210d agoexcluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $12.1k99% 215d agoexcluded
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State SpartansLOW SELL Louisville Cardinals @ 35¢ $23.6k65% 217d agoexcluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $27.7k0% 235d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $21.3k0% 237d agoexcluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $12.0k0% 257d agoexcluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$13.9k
LOW Nik- · 96d ago
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$17.5k
LOW Nik- · 139d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$10.9k
LOW Nik- · 145d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$13.3k
LOW Nik- · 177d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$15.0k
LOW Nik- · 177d ago
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$13.8k
LOW Nik- · 185d ago
Trump out as President by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$13.9k
LOW Nik- · 186d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$15.7k
LOW Nik- · 186d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$14.8k
LOW Nik- · 186d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$11.5k
LOW Nik- · 193d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$12.0k
LOW Nik- · 198d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$13.7k
LOW Nik- · 199d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$13.9k
LOW Nik- · 210d ago
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$12.1k
LOW Nik- · 215d ago
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartansexcluded
SELL Louisville Cardinals @ 35¢$23.6k
LOW Nik- · 217d ago
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$27.7k
LOW Nik- · 235d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$21.3k
LOW Nik- · 237d ago
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$12.0k
LOW Nik- · 257d ago

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