0x54a5…ee3d

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -28.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?−$7,329Yes · avg 56¢ → 9.8¢ · $1,533 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?+$292Yes · avg 58¢ → 75¢ · $1,289 Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?−$91Yes · avg 53¢ → 46¢ · $566 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?+$73Yes · avg 68¢ → 82¢ · $418 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?−$275Yes · avg 45¢ → 18¢ · $175 Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?−$922Yes · avg 34¢ → 2.2¢ · $64

Price-adjusted edge

-28.8 pts

Called / graded

2/6

Expected from price

3.7

Flagged volume

$110.9k

Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.8 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$66k

6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 83¢) and the edge is -38.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 10% · n=1

20–40¢

0% vs 24% · n=1

80–100¢

50% vs 85% · n=4

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$19.5k

Last 30 days −$4,190 · $4.54M volume · 6,385 trades · since Aug 08, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$6,804

Open P&L · 10 positions

−$9,619

Closed-position win rate

32%

95 closed

Wallet age · markets

808d

100 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	6	2	3.7	-28.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢	$12.8k	83%	102d ago	called
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢	$10.1k	84%	106d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢	$26.0k 2.0× usual	83%	106d ago	missed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 10¢	$10.5k	10%	134d ago	missed
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 11¢	$10.6k	89%	134d ago	called
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢	$23.3k	24%	208d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.8¢	$17.6k	2%	237d ago	excluded

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 17¢$12.8k

LOW 0x54a5…ee3d · 102d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL Yes @ 16¢$10.1k

LOW 0x54a5…ee3d · 106d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL Yes @ 17¢$26.0k

LOW 0x54a5…ee3d · 106d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 10¢$10.5k

LOW 0x54a5…ee3d · 134d ago

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 11¢$10.6k

LOW 0x54a5…ee3d · 134d ago

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?missed

BUY Yes @ 24¢$23.3k

LOW 0x54a5…ee3d · 208d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 97.8¢$17.6k

LOW 0x54a5…ee3d · 237d ago

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