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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -32.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-32.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$40.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$12.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $381.2k volume · 29 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$17.0k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$29.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
2 closed
Wallet age · markets
288d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.6 | -32.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $20.4k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED SELL Yes @ 69¢ | $20.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd9cbc4…